Who's gonna be the next James Bond?

There was a big to-do a few weeks back because a certain Big-Name Right-Winger said Idris Elba can't be the next James Bond cuz he's black, and Fleming wrote Bond as white.

Fun story: Fleming pitched a fit when some brute Scotsman was cast as a character he'd imagined as David Niven or Hoagy Carmichael.

Then Fleming turned around and made Book!Bond half-Scottish because the films were Just That Good.

Anyway, who's gonna be the next James Bond?

Wait, who said Daniel Craig's leaving any time soon?

Craig is contracted for two more films. Spectre will be his fourth. He's still got another one to do after this one, and given the, ah, protracted rate of production, I estimate Bond 25 will be out in 2018. Craig will be 50 by that time. Two actors have played James Bond past the age of 50: Sean Connery in the unofficial Never Say Never Again (52) and Roger Moore in Moonraker (51), For Your Eyes Only (53), Octopussy (55) and A View to a Kill (57). Neither one exactly covered themselves in glory by choosing to do so (although A View to a Kill is a testament to Moore's willingness to try and hold an awful film together).

Now, I also know that there was some goofball idea post-Skyfall that Craig renew his contract for five films instead of only two. That this didn't happen suggests that Craig can see his exit from the franchise on the horizon. (I'd personally like for them to go into Craig's film knowing it's going to be his last one: do a "James Bond's last mission" or even a "Death of James Bond" sort of thing, and then wipe the slate clean again for the next guy. Don't think they've got the guts, but it would be nice to actually do something like that - I don't believe they've ever made a film a) knowing it was going to be that actor's last film and b) taking advantage of that fact to tell a sort of story the wouldn't otherwise be able to tell.*)

Yeah, okay, but who's gonna be the next James Bond?

You're kidding, right? We're talking about something three years away? In show business?

You're probably not really thinking about him right now. While everyone except Lazenby had some sort of a resume before getting the part, only Moore and Brosnan were particularly "well"-known. Now, my guess is that as far as characterization goes, we're probably going to see something more lighter and comedic, in the Moore/Brosnan mold than some edgy licensed killer a la Dalton/Craig. Will that necessarily carry over into casting an "obvious" choice? Dunno.

Moreover, sometimes I think we (meaning people in my head) forget exactly what the producers want, or rather, what the producers think the audience wants.  For example, Dalton got an interview for OHMSS based off his performance in The Lion in Winter. All that performance does is prove he can act; the only thing his character has in common with his Bond is that they're both manipulative bastards, and that's a trait that doesn't really carry over to the other Bonds. There's nothing - not to my amateur's eye anyway - that says this guy is worth chasing for the next eighteen years. In short, the producers may be looking for someone we wouldn't instinctively think of as "The Next James Bond."

Idris Elba can act, no doubt about it, but as Jacques Stewart said, the only RSC you really need to worry about is Replacement Sean Connery. Moreover, Idris is gonna turn 46 in 2018. I have a hunch that if the official reason for Craig's departure is "he's too old," they're not going to turn around and cast a guy who's going to run into the same problem only two films from now. In fact, (assuming Dalton was born in 1944**) the only times the outgoing actor wasn't succeeded by someone at least nine years his junior was in the kerfuffles of the early 70s, as they jumped from Lazenby (born in 1939) to Connery for one more (1930) to Moore (1927). And yes Roger Moore was 45 when he started, and a) look how that turned out, yeah? and b) my guess is that the franchise is going to be in slightly less dire straights in 2018 than it was in 1973.

I've done a handy lil' chart here:

Yes, I have this graphic saved as "BondAge"

That weird little freakout that is Diamonds Are Forever aside, there's a pretty clear correlation between the length of a Bond's term and the age gap between him and his successor. So if Craig's going to be in the part for 13 years, I'd be looking for someone at least 10 years younger than him. Not too much younger: I think 37 (Book!Bond's age) is a pretty decent floor for most people. Connery was a magic exception, and he didn't act young. (And you could be nice and say that Lazenby's youth helped in that particular story more than it hurt. I'm not saying you have to do that.)

Yeah, yeah, okay, now can you please guess someone?

Fine.

If you're dead set on a black actor as the next James Bond, I really wouldn't bet on somebody only four years younger than the incumbent. Ten years seems to be a more realistic figure. Try Chiwetel Ejiofor. If you can spell it. If you don't think they're going to play the PC game, Michael Fassbender might actually be a bit too famous for the part, but he's the same age as Ejiofor.

But I'm really just throwing these two names out to have names on the board. My guess is that Barbara Broccoli and Michael G. Wilson are quietly compiling a list, and that when James VII is finally announced, we're more likely to go "who?" than "I knew it!"

UPDATE: It's also possible that another round of litigation is about to start, which might tie up production for another few years. (Although this time 'round it's not the producers suing the studio, so probably not.)


*Blah blah OHMSS blah blah crane shot at the end of the wedding was the original ending blah blah changed the ending at the last minute cuz Lazenby wasn't coming back blah blah. That's one scene, not "an entire movie." (Although I'd be the first to admit that that one scene helped make that movie so good, I'm still not going to give it more credit than it's due.)

**Neither Wikipedia nor IMDB can make up their minds whether Dalton was born in 1944 or 1946, but Dalton says he declined the role of Bond in OHMSS (1969) because he was only "24 or 25" at the time, which gels with the earlier date.